The State of the South African Carbon Market 2025 provides an updated view of the market. Comparing 2024 Carbon Offset Administration System (COAS) performance to the previous year, listings increased by 19% to 4.4 million Carbon Tax Offsets (CTOs), while retirements increased by 5% to 4.2 million CTOs, and the stockpile also increased by 33%, to 0.4 million CTOs. This indicates that the carbon market has rebounded from pre-2022 levels, suggesting continued trust in COAS as a credible mechanism.
While sustained use of the COAS system reflects positive momentum for the South African carbon market, concentration risk from a demand, supply and Standard perspective poses a significant threat to the overall sustainability of the market.
Looking ahead, Brundtland has modelled an updated CTO Demand/Supply Gap forecast. This shows a persistent demand gap up to 2045 when incorporating the change to the Carbon Offset Allowance in Phase 2 of the South African Carbon Tax. Supply, by contrast, remains relatively flat. The demand gap is expected to deepen further as the market matures with emerging developments already taking shape. Continued effort to de-risk project development is essential to unlock further supply and meet growing demand.

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251001-State-of-the-SA-C-Market-2025-Final-v8.0