South Africa’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) was released by the World Bank and the Presidential Climate Commission just days before COP27 kicks off on Sunday, 6 November, in Egypt.

South Africa is warming at twice the global average rate, with rising temperatures and variable rainfall resulting in recurring droughts, floods and heatwaves disproportionately impacting important industries (eg agriculture and tourism); critical infrastructure; and the most vulnerable communities.

The report highlights that heading toward a net-zero economy will put South Africa on a positive growth trajectory, mainly due to resolution of the energy crisis, productivity gains, higher employment and carbon emission reductions. In fact, if net zero is achieved, the economy could expand by an average of about 2.3% of GDP per year between 2022 and 2050 – more than twice the rate over the past decade.

The report provides recommendations to achieve rapid growth, higher employment and lower inequality with three interconnected transitions.

1. A low-carbon transition – moving from coal to renewable energy to address the energy crisis, lower GHG emissions and deliver health, environmental and economic competitiveness benefits.

2. A resilient transition – implementing measures to adapt to climate impacts on infrastructure, productivity, human capital, water resources and long-term development goals.

3. A just transition – an inclusive economy with targeted assistance to poor communities most affected by climate hazards.

Achieving these transitions will require a combination of structural reforms, a more flexible labour market, improvements in fiscal and financial policies, and financing of an estimated 4.4% of GDP per year – or R8.5 trillion between 2022 and 2050.

To enable a just transition to a low-carbon economy by 2050, the CCDR also presents a set of five priority policy packages. Implementing these packages efficiently will require the government to address several challenges that have undermined reforms in South Africa for years.

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