The State of the South African Carbon Market 2024 report provides an analysis of the country’s carbon market, focusing on Carbon Tax Offsets (CTOs) and their role in reducing emissions. In 2023, CTO retirements dropped to 2.0 million CTOs, while the stockpile decreased significantly to 0.3 million CTOs, reflecting a tightening market.In 2024, energy demand projects led retirements with 2.80 million CTOs, followed by waste handling at 0.83 million CTOs. South Africa’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets emissions targets of 536 Mt CO₂e (upper bound) and 438 Mt CO₂e (lower bound) by 2030, aligning with its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

The CTO supply forecast for 2024 estimates 10-11 million CTOs/year, driven by waste management and natural climate solutions projects. However, a supply-demand gap of 18.13 million CTOs is projected for 2024, increasing to 39.00 million CTOs by 2030.

This report examines the current state and future trajectory of South Africa’s carbon market, offering insights into its alignment with national and global climate goals.

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